3.42
Jul 2026 (latest)
OCCUPATIONAL CHURN (YALE INDEX)
dissimilarity index, percentage-point shift in the occupational mix over the prior 12 months, 12-month moving average · 2023–2026 · neither direction is "better" · Yale Budget Lab, Tracking the Impact of AI on the Labor Market (from CPS microdata)
2.83
Nov 2022
3.50
high · Jun 2026
2.73
low · May 2024
+21%
since Nov 2022
┊ on the monthly chart the dashed line marks ChatGPT released (Nov 30, 2022)
Method & caveats. A Duncan dissimilarity index of how much the occupational composition of the US labor force has shifted against a rolling 12-month baseline, computed from monthly Current Population Survey microdata by the Yale Budget Lab and updated with each CPS release (repository data file, all sectors, rolling variant). The Budget Lab's reading on the tracker page (updated August 19, 2026): "The occupational mix is not yet changing in ways that clearly align with the introduction of AI into the workforce." A rise would mean the mix of jobs is changing faster; it does not say why. Begins January 2022; October 2025 CPS is missing (federal shutdown).
Sources
Every value on this page is read from the publisher below. Current and historical source documents:
- https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/tracking-impact-ai-labor-market
- https://github.com/Budget-Lab-Yale/budget-lab-interactives/tree/main/tools/ai-labor-market-tracker
- https://github.com/danielmiessler/substrate/tree/main/Data/US-Employment-And-Jobs
Monthly data
The publisher's own cadence, every period. The annual table below is derived from these values (annual average); the annual figures are what the almanac pages and the machine-readable exports carry.
| Period | Occupational Churn (Yale index) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 3.42 | −2% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.50 | +1% |
| May 2026 | 3.47 | +1% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.45 | +1% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.42 | +3% |
| Feb 2026 | 3.32 | −3% |
| Jan 2026 | 3.42 | −1% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.47 | +2% |
| Nov 2025 | 3.41 | +3% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.31 | +1% |
| Aug 2025 | 3.29 | +3% |
| Jul 2025 | 3.19 | +2% |
| Jun 2025 | 3.13 | +1% |
| May 2025 | 3.09 | −2% |
| Apr 2025 | 3.15 | −1% |
| Mar 2025 | 3.19 | +2% |
| Feb 2025 | 3.12 | +1% |
| Jan 2025 | 3.10 | +1% |
| Dec 2024 | 3.06 | +2% |
| Nov 2024 | 2.99 | +3% |
| Oct 2024 | 2.91 | +2% |
| Sep 2024 | 2.85 | +2% |
| Aug 2024 | 2.79 | +0% |
| Jul 2024 | 2.79 | +2% |
| Jun 2024 | 2.74 | +0% |
| May 2024 | 2.73 | −2% |
| Apr 2024 | 2.78 | −3% |
| Mar 2024 | 2.86 | −3% |
| Feb 2024 | 2.96 | −1% |
| Jan 2024 | 2.99 | −1% |
| Dec 2023 | 3.03 | −1% |
| Nov 2023 | 3.05 | +1% |
| Oct 2023 | 3.01 | −0% |
| Sep 2023 | 3.02 | −0% |
| Aug 2023 | 3.03 | −4% |
| Jul 2023 | 3.14 | −1% |
| Jun 2023 | 3.17 | −1% |
| May 2023 | 3.19 | +2% |
| Apr 2023 | 3.14 | −1% |
| Mar 2023 | 3.18 | +1% |
| Feb 2023 | 3.14 | +2% |
| Jan 2023 | 3.08 | +6% |
| Dec 2022 | 2.91 | +3% |
| Nov 2022 | 2.83 | — |
Annual data
| Year | Occupational Churn (Yale index) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.43 | +7% |
| 2025 | 3.22 | +12% |
| 2024 | 2.87 | −7% |
| 2023 | 3.10 | — |
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